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LGT Navigator: Risk aversion dominates Fed Powell speech

July 10, 2019

Investors on the stock markets remain cautious towards the middle of the week. In addition to the existing uncertainties and geopolitical risks, BASF's unexpected profit warning led to increased risk aversion. The focus today is on the statements made by Fed chief Jerome Powell.


On the occasion of the regular report of the US Federal Reserve Chairman to the US Parliament, investors are hoping to gain insights into the Fed's expected monetary policy orientation. A relaxation of interest rates already at the next meeting on July 31 seems questionable after the recent surprisingly strong US labor market report. Further information could also be provided by the minutes of the last interest rate decision of June 19, which will be published tonight at 8pm (CET). Investors are now also focusing on the US corporate reporting season. Starting next week, the focus will be on the first quarter results of the US banks. BASF's earnings warning – the share temporarily lost up to -6.45% and closed -3.32% lower – also increased economic concerns, as the German chemical company massively revised its outlook downwards, mainly due to the continuing risks for the global economy. The chemical industry is regarded as an important economic indicator.

Lagarde officially nominated for ECB top position

The finance ministers of the euro countries yesterday officially nominated IMF chief Christine Lagarde to succeed Mario Draghi as head of the European Central Bank (ECB). Draghi's term of office, which is limited to eight years and cannot be extended, ends on October 31. The next step will be to consult the European Parliament before the heads of state and government of the euro area finally decide to award the presidency of the ECB.

British pound hits two-year low

The still completely unclear outcome of the Brexit and the resulting economic consequences caused the Pound Sterling to drop yesterday against the US dollar to 1.2442, its lowest level since April 2017. The most recent trigger was disappointing retail data with a renewed and stronger than expected decline in UK retail sales, reinforcing fears of an economic downturn on the island. GDP growth could subsequently be negative for the first time since the end of 2012. Politically, the situation remains confused. The leader of the Labour Party, Jeremy Corbyn, pleaded for a second Brexit referendum. In this case, the largest opposition party would promote remaining in the EU. Boris Johnson and Jeremy Hunt are fighting for party chairmanship and the succession of Prime Minister Theresa May in the ruling conservatives, the Tories, until July 23.

Economic Indicators July 10

MEZ Country Indicator Last
03:30 CN Consumer Prices (y/y) +2.7%
03:30 CN Producer Prices (y/y) +0.6%
08:00 NOR Consumer Prices (y/y) +2.5%
08:45 FR Industrial Production (y/y) +1.1%
10:00 IT Industrial Production (y/y) -1.5%
10:30 UK Industrial Production (y/y) -1.0%
16:00 CA BoC Monetary Policy Decision +1.75%
20:00 US FOMC Minutes (Meeting June 19)

Earnings Calendar July 15

Country Corporate Period
US Citigroup Q2



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Source: LGT Bank (Switzerland) Ltd.

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