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LGT Navigator: Trade dispute downward spiral

May 14, 2019

On the stock markets, investors are feeling the uncertainty of the recent escalation in the trade dispute between the US and China. In the meantime, China countered and announced punitive tariffs on additional US import goods with a volume of USD 60bn. In Asia, the stock markets were under pressure to sell, albeit not as strongly as Wall Street.

The minutes of the US Federal Reserve's last monetary policy decision on March 20 confirmed the Fed's wait-and-see attitude. There are still "significant uncertainties" in the economic outlook, and latest US inflation data will probably not put pressure on the Fed to raise key interest rates again in the near future. ECB President Mario Draghi continues to see growth risks for the euro zone and recent economic data have confirmed that the pace of growth in the euro area is slowing. Nevertheless, the likelihood of a recession remains low.

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