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LGT Beacon: Brace for turbulence, but stay the course

October 21, 2020

The past six weeks brought an interim increase in market volatility, as another pandemic wave hit Europe, additional fiscal stimulus remained elusive in the US, the president contracted COVID-19 and his Democrat challenger appeared on track to win the election. Underneath all that drama, however, participation in the market recovery has started to broaden.

Financial markets went through a moderate increase in volatility since we set our investment strategy for the fourth quarter in mid-September, with the high-flying mega-tech stocks giving back a relatively big part of their somewhat extreme year-to-date gains. Still, our overall constructive view in risk asset markets has broadly paid off so far, as most market indices extended gains this quarter and all sectors participated in the rally more equally than during the earlier phases of the rebound in the first half of the year. Put differently, despite the interim volatility bout, triggered mostly by political and pandemic-related noise as the US election day nears, participation in the rally has broadened over the past few weeks – and that's a welcome sign that the underlying market conditions have improved.

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Note: The next edition of the LGT Beacon is scheduled for November 2020.