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LGT Navigator: A look at the US labor market

June 3, 2022

The monthly labor market report from the United States is the focus of the capital markets today. If the solid employment growth continues, this will reinforce the US Federal Reserve in its more restrictive monetary policy stance and increase the likelihood of rapid and strong interest rate steps. However, the data published yesterday by ADP suggest that momentum in the US job market is weakening again.

A look at the US labor market

On Wall Street, the optimists prevailed on Thursday and provided a recovery from the losses of recent days. One reason could be that market participants expect weaker employment growth in the US based on the latest data from ADP. This could let the Federal Reserve act a little less “aggressive”, respectively, the Fed could possibly raise the key interest rate in smaller steps. The official labor market report will provide more clarity in this regard this afternoon at 14:30 (CET). Another positive impetus was provided by the decline in oil prices after Opec+ is willing to significantly increase its output. The Dow Jones Industrial closed +1.33% higher at 33'248.28 points and the market-wide S&P 500 gained even more, adding +1.84% to 4'176.82 points. The strongest short-term rally was on the Nasdaq technology exchange, where the indices posted a daily gain of around +2.75%.

In Asia, most stock indices benefitted from the positive guidance from overseas. In Tokyo, the Nikkei 225 gained about +1.2%. Stock exchanges in Hong Kong and Shanghai are closed today due to a public holiday and in London, the stock exchange also remains closed today.

US job market has lost some momentum according to ADP

The report of the American labor market services provider ADP showed weaker job growth in the US private sector. In May, +128'000 new jobs were created, significantly less than expected. Analysts had forecast an increase of 300'000 new jobs. With excitement, the official labor market report from Washington is expected today. The market consensus also assumes a certain deceleration, respectively, fewer jobs created in the overall economy. Forecast is 325'000 non-farm payrolls in May compared to +425'000 in April.

Inflationary pressure at producer level in the eurozone continues to intensify

In the euro area, producer prices continue to rise at a record pace. On an annual basis, producer prices rose by +37.2% in April – the highest rate of increase since the introduction of the euro in 1999. Producers of goods had to pay almost 100% more for energy than a year earlier. Prices for intermediate goods also continued to rise strongly by +25%. The background to this continues to be the problems in global supply chains and geopolitical uncertainties. The development of producer prices is feeding through to consumer prices with a lag.

China in the fast lane in terms of patents

According to a report by the German Patent and Trademark Office (DPMA), China significantly increased the number of patent applications in key technology areas last year, overtaking the United States. According to the figures, 4308 patents in digital communications technology were filed in the People's Republic in 2021, almost +7% more than a year earlier, compared with 4115 in the US (-2.4%). The leader here is the Chinese mobile communications and network technology group Huawei. In audio-visual technology, patent applications from China increased by +42% to 1055, while American companies filed 1234 patents (+10%). In computer technology, the US remained the leader with 5943 patent applications – China came in at 2017. In semiconductors and chips, Japan continues to lead with 1020 patent applications, followed by the US (884), South Korea (820) and Taiwan (695).

Economic Indicators June 3

MEZ Country Indicator Last period
08:00 GE Exports (April, m/m) -3.3%
08:00 GE Imports (April, m/m) +3.4%
09:15 ESP PMI Services (May) 57.1
09:45 IT PMI Composite (May) 54.5
09:50 FR PMI Composite (May) 57.1
09:55 GE PMI Composite (May) 54.6
10:00 EZ PMI Composite (May) 54.9
11:00 EZ Retail Sales (April, m/m) -0.4%
14:30 US Unemployment Rate (May) 3.6%
14:30 US Non-Farm Payrolls (May) +428,000
14:30 US Average Hourly Earnings (May, m/m) +0.3%
15:45 US PMI Composite (May) 53.8
16:00 US ISM PMI Non-Manufacturing (May) 57.1

 

Earnings Calender June 3

Country Company Period
US Amazon Equity Split (20:1)

 

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Publisher: LGT Bank (Switzerland) Ltd., Glärnischstrasse 36, CH-8027 Zurich
Editor: Alessandro Fezzi, E-Mail: lgt.navigator@lgt.com
Source: LGT Bank (Switzerland) Ltd.

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