Prior to today's interest rate decision by the ECB (13:45 CET) and the figures on the inflation trend in the United States (14:30), investors remained cautious. In New York, the Dow Jones Industrial ended Wednesday's trading at 34'447.14 points, a daily loss of -0.44%. The market-wide S&P 500 also declined, down -0.18% to 4'219.55 points. Meanwhile, on the tech stock market Nasdaq, the indices held a little better: the Nasdaq 100 remained virtually unchanged from the previous day at 13'814.94 points (+0.03%) and the Nasdaq Composite at 13'911.75 points (-0.09%). On Asia's stock exchanges, the trading ranges on Thursday also kept within narrow limits.
More movement was observed in the bond market, where in the run-up to the eagerly awaited US inflation data the yield of ten-year US government bonds declined to 1.49% from about 1.53% mid-week. Should consumer prices in the US rise even more strongly than economists are forecasting – the consensus is for a rise in the full-year inflation rate from +4.2% in April to +4.7% in May and in the core rate from +3.0% to +3.4% – this could lead to an adjustment of inflation expectations on the capital markets and a faster reduction of the stimulus by the Federal Reserve.
In the run-up to the summit meeting of the heads of state and government of the seven largest industrialized nations (G7) in the United Kingdom, which begins today, calls for concrete efforts to protect the climate are growing louder. Carbon dioxide emissions should be reduced more quickly and more strongly than has been promised so far, and the financial resources promised so far for climate protection should also be expanded, demanded the development organization Oxfam International, for example. Combating the effects of climate change is likely to be one of the focal points of the summit and US President Joe Biden's first visit to Europe. High on the agenda, however, will certainly be pandemic control and geopolitical issues. The G7 comprises the USA, Canada, Great Britain, Germany, France, Italy, and Japan. Representatives of the European Union will also be at the table.
According to the leading indicator of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), a sustained recovery can be expected in most major economies. The OECD's leading indicator is designed for the long term and is intended to detect early signs of economic turning points. It should be possible to anticipate such a turning point relative to the trend six to nine months before the change.
|08:45||FR||Industrial Production (April, m/m)||+0.8%|
|10:00||IT||Industrial Production (April, m/m)||-0.1%|
|13:45||EZ||ECB Monetary Policy Announcement|
|14:30||EZ||ECB Press Conference|
|14:30||US||Consumer Prices (May, m/m)||+0.8%|
|14:30||US||Consumer Prices (May, y/y)||+4.3%|
|14:30||US||Core Consumer Prices (May, y/y)||+3.0%|
|14:30||US||Initial Jobless Claims (weekly)||385,000|
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Source: LGT Bank (Switzerland) Ltd.
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