Tight global oil supply and geopolitical tensions in Eastern Europe and the Middle East have sent oil prices up about +15% this year. Last Friday, crude oil saw its highest prices since 2014, with Brent at USD 91.70 and WTI at USD 88.84.
The market does not expect OPEC+ to change course at today's meeting. The alliance of oil-exporting countries is expected to bring an additional 400'000 barrels per day into the market for March, meaning it will continue to focus on moderate production increases. This would probably result in a continuation of the tightening of supply and the upward trend in prices.
The unemployment rate in the eurozone fell to 7% in January, the lowest level since records began in 1998. Tuesday's data from Germany also showed an unexpectedly sharp drop in claims for unemployment benefits. However, due to the various measures surrounding the coronavirus, these figures should be taken with a grain of salt.
Thus, the current aggregate eurozone unemployment rate beats the previous employment records set in 2008 before the financial crisis (7.3%), and in 2020 before the corona crisis (7.2%). The highest unemployment rate was recorded in 2013 at 12.2%.
The US manufacturing sector exhibits a further reduction of supply-chain stress, even though there are many sick leaves due to the omicron coronavirus variant. Official production and employment numbers held up while indicators of demand, notably backlogs and orders, receded. Indicators like the Delivery Delays Index posted the lowest value since November 2020. This may be an indication that inflation of good prices may moderate in 2022 as demand and supply shift back to normal territories.
|11:00||EZ||Consumer price index (year-on-year)||5.0%|
|13:00||USA||MBA mortgage applications||-7.1%|
|14:15||USA||ADP employment change||807k|
Publisher: LGT Bank (Switzerland) Ltd., Glärnischstrasse 36, CH-8027 Zurich
Editor: David Wolf, +41 44 250 78 59, E-Mail: email@example.com
Source: LGT Bank (Switzerland) Ltd.
Risk Disclosure (Disclaimer)
This publication is an advertising material / marketing communication. This publication is for your information only and is not intended as an offer, solicitation of an offer, or public advertisement to buy or sell any investment or other specific product. Its content has been prepared by our staff and is based on sources of information we consider to be reliable. However, we cannot provide any confirmation or guarantee as to its being correct, complete and up to date. The circumstances and principles to which the information contained in this publication relates may change at any time. Information that has been published should therefore not be understood as implying that no change has taken place since its publication or that it is still up to date. The information in this publication does not constitute an aid for decision-making in relation to financial, legal, tax-related or other consulting matters, nor should any investment decisions or other decisions be made on the basis of this information alone. It is recommended that advice be obtained from a qualified expert. Investors should be aware that the value of investments can fall as well as rise. Positive performance in the past is therefore no guarantee of positive performance in the future. Investments in foreign currencies are also subject to fluctuations in exchange rates. We disclaim all liability for any loss or damage of any kind, whether direct, indirect or consequential, which may be incurred through the use of this publication. This publication is not intended for persons subject to legislation that prohibits its distribution or makes its distribution contingent upon an approval. Any person coming into possession of this publication shall therefore be obliged to find out about any restrictions that may apply and to comply with them. In line with internal guidelines, persons responsible for compiling this report are free to buy hold and sell the securities referred to in this report.